What do we need to know for Sports Arbitrage Betting (Surebets)?
Introduction
Remember Next? The 2007 film? Cris Johnson (Nicolas Cage) can see into his future. He can only see two minutes ahead. He works as a magician in Las Vegas, where he supplements his income with gambling, using his powers to win against the house.
This would be every gambler’s dream. Just two minutes ahead are enough to make fortunes. Unfortunately, nobody will ever see it happen. However, there’s a way to achieve constant winnings on sports betting with almost no risk, without the need to know the future.
In the film, Cris Johnson said: “I've seen every possible ending. None of them are good for you.”
Now let me introduce you another film from 2006 - OddStorm
! There the Arbitrage betting (surebetting) is exactly the opposite. It’s always winning. It’s the betting strategy you are looking for. But it’s not easy. You need to be patient and constant, you need methodologies and tools. You need to invest money and time. Let’s start by the basics.
! There the Arbitrage betting (surebetting) is exactly the opposite. It’s always winning. It’s the betting strategy you are looking for. But it’s not easy. You need to be patient and constant, you need methodologies and tools. You need to invest money and time. Let’s start by the basics.Arbitrage betting
Simultaneously placing bets on all possible outcomes on a particular sports market with different betting companies, where the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome.
Arbitrage example
Let’s look at a recent example. Germany playing against Russia on the FIVB World Championship (September 13, 2014). At a given time, Germany’s victory paid 5.4 at Marathon and Russia’s victory paid 1.26 at Bwin. I bet 150 Euros on Germany at Marathon and 650 Euros on Russia at Bwin. As Russia won, I got 819 Euros at Bwin (650 x 1.26). Given that the two bets were 800 Euros, my profit was 19 Euros. That’s a 2.375% profit. But what if Germany had won? I would have been paid 810 Euros at Marathon (150x5.4). Again, a profit.
If Cris Johnson was talking to OddStorm customers, he should have said “I've seen every possible ending. All of them are good for you.” That’s arbitrage betting.
Arbitrage calculation
So the question is. How can I know if there is an arbitrage opportunity? Odds are the key. Here is where OddStorm comes to help you. Let’s find out.
Odds are related to probabilities. The higher the odds the lower the probability of winning. We can convert odds into probabilities using the following formula:
Prob (%) = 100 / odds
Considering the Volleyball match above. Germany’s probability percentage (according to Marathon) is 100 / 5.4 or 18.519%. Russia’s probability percentage (according to Bwin) is 100 / 1.26 or 79.365%
Identifying an arbitrage opportunity is very easy. You simply must add the percentages for all the outcomes in the market. If the sum is less than 100%, there is an arb! In the example above, the sum is 97.884% so there is an arbitrage opportunity.
Stake calculation
The next step is to know how much to bet. OddStom calculates this for you but let’s explain. To have a sure profit we must be paid nearly the same amount on all outcomes so that this amount covers the sum of all bets. If we want to be paid 1000 on each bookmaker, we can divide 1000 by the odds to get the stake.
1000 / 5.4 = 185.19 (at Marathon)
1000 / 1.26 = 793.65 (at Bwin)
Given this is an arbitrage opportunity, the sum of stakes will always be less than the amount to be paid (in the example, the total stake is 978.84 and our profit will be more than 21 in both cases)
Working model
In order to make arbitrage betting work, we need many important tools that OddStorm provides. Let’s discuss some of them.
Bookmakers and exchanges
Bookmakers (bookies) and betting exchanges are the companies where you place your bets. Bookmakers set the odds on each market and you bet against the house. Betting exchanges just establish events and markets, but odds are set by the users (bettors). You bet against other people and not against the house.
If you want to be successful as an arber, you’ll need to have many accounts on bookmakers as arbitrage opportunities cannot appear on a single bookies.
Alert services
Alert services are the most important piece in the arbitrage system. Odds adjust at different bookmakers as bettors place their bets and surebet opportunities can be produced at any time, but they only last a few minutes. It is very difficult to detect these opportunities without the aid of an alert service like OddStorm.
OddStorm is an alert service that is constantly scanning odds on many bookmakers and performs the calculations to detect the arbitrages and present them to their users. There are not many good alert services and subscription prices are not a bargain, but these prices are more than justified. Good alert services provide:
· An important number of bookmakers.
· A good number of markets coverage and cross market arbitrage detection.
· Arb detection for future events and for live events (in-play).
· High speed odds updates.
· Filters (arbitrage percentage, time of events and many other).
· Bookmaker customization.
· Stake calculator.
With OddStorm you get all of this and much more!
Calculators
In general calculators are integrated with alert services. Basic calculation is easy but larger arbs (with 3 or more outcomes) and cross market arbs are much more difficult to calculate. That’s where calculators are necessary.
Ewallets
Arbitrage requires money. You need money on many bookmakers and you need to transfer money between bookmakers quickly. After winning streaks on some bookmakers, and losing streaks on other, your bankroll is totally unbalanced.
In order to manage money efficiently, ewallets are an important tool. Although bookmakers accept several deposit and withdrawal options, some of them have costs, are slow, or are not suitable for withdrawing. Ewallets generally solve these problems.
Tracking
As I any business, tracking your operations is very useful. In arbitrage betting, you operations are deposits, withdrawals and bets. As you will have to use dozens of bookmakers and ewallets, your operations will be difficult to track. Excel spreadsheets and surebet tracking applications are a great aid to control your balances and analyse your bets.
Risks and opportunities
Risks
Arbitrage is not “risk-free”. But if it is done carefully, it is almost risk-free, and risks are manageable.
Most common users’ errors include:
· Betting on different events
· Betting incorrect stakes or odds
· Betting incorrect markets or outcomes
· Insufficient balance to place all legs
· Exchange rates, fees and commissions not considered
· Palpable errors. Odds are incorrect and a bookmaker can void your bet.
· Different rules. Some bookmakers can have different rules to settle bets (in case of interrupted matches, overtime, etc.)
· Limits. Most bookmakers don’t like arbers (because they could not be profitable for them) and usually limit them to small betting amounts.
Opportunities
Arbitrage betting is getting harder. Arbitrage opportunities last a few minutes and bookmakers’ limits arrive quicker. However OddStorm provides lots of opportunities to continue profiting from it.
Key opportunities are on live arbitrage. This situation arises because there are more arbs, and more profitable. Live arbitrage requires less budget and bets settlement is faster. In general limits on in play events come much later than on future events. However, live arbitrage is quite difficult and requires experience and high speed.
It is crucial to subscribe to a good live alert service that provides fastest the arbitrages like OddStorm do for live events (1-3sec) and for future events (15 sec). It is the global fastest sports arbitrage service.
May the odds be ever in your favour!